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09/02/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Labour Day approaches in Canada and, in the CFL, that means rivalries take over for the most-anticipated weekend of the regular season. The Toronto Argonauts and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats are set to complete the home-and-home series they began in Week 8, where it was Steeltown that came away with a tight win over the Boatmen. Meanwhile, Montreal hosts the eighth-place BC Lions, and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers look to gain ground against prairie rival Saskatchewan Roughriders.
TORONTO ARGONAUTS
The Argos have battled it out with the Ti-Cats on Labor Day every year since 1948. The tradition continues again this year, and despite having a better record, it's Toronto looking to prove something.
The Argos dropped a 16-12 decision at home to Hamilton two weeks ago, courtesy of 13 points allowed in the final quarter and receiving 10 penalties for 115 yards.
Simply put, Toronto gave the game away and is hungry to exact revenge.
Despite the loss, Toronto can ride the positive vibes of having two of its players named Players of the Month for August.
Cory Boyd was named August's best offensive player after amassing 386 total yards from scrimmage, highlighted by a 164-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 6.
Meanwhile, linebacker Kevin Eiban was named Top Canadian. He currently leads the league with 53 tackles this season.
Offensive key to the next game (Hamilton Tiger-Cats): Boyd can't do it all, but he is the most important piece of the Argos offense. Behind him, Cleo Lemon needs to throw at a higher percentage - he connected on just 18-of-31 pass attempts in Week 8.
Defensive key to the next game: Discipline comes first in this game as Toronto would have won easily had it not been for penalties. Aside from that, the defensive line needs to tighten up a little bit and not allow DeAndra Cobb to approach the century mark in rushing yards again.
Look ahead: Toronto plays the three worst teams in the league over the next few weeks, and since two are home games, it's essential the Argos win them if they want to keep up with Montreal in the East.
HAMILTON TIGER-CATS
It's been a tough go for the Ti-Cats this season, but after two consecutive wins, they're right back in the thick of things. Hamilton is just one game back of Toronto, making the Labour Day matchup a true classic in the making.
DeAndra Cobb played a huge part, having his best game of the season in Week 8 when he ran for 99 yards and scoring the game-winning touchdown in the dying minutes.
Though the Ti-Cats snatched victory from their Ontario rivals, it was not a great showing by any stretch of the imagination. Hamilton scored just three points in the first three quarters before finding the will to win in the final frame.
Hamilton will look to iron out its lackluster play from two weeks ago and come out of the gates strong at home in Week 10.
Offensive key to the next game (Toronto Argonauts): Cobb is hitting his stride now and may be the difference again this time around. However, receiver Arland Bruce is the key piece in the puzzle as limiting Toronto to just 12 points two weeks in a row is highly unlikely. Bruce will need to step up and improve on his 68-yard performance in his last game.
Defensive key to the next game: The defensive key against Toronto is the same for every team - stop Cory Boyd. Limiting Boyd to just 86 yards two weeks ago is surprisingly great defensive work.
Look ahead: Hamilton plays two top teams in Montreal and Saskatchewan over the next three weeks, and though both are at home, it will be hard for the Ti-Cats to continue to climb their way up the standings.
MONTREAL ALOUETTES
The storyline of what would have likely been a convincing Montreal win over BC in Week 10 has instead become about the injury to the Als' most important player, and how the Lions can take advantage.
Quarterback Anthony Calvillo is out and third-stringer Chris Leak is in, a replacement that has to have the last-place Lions gnashing their teeth for a chance to pick up a rare win.
Regardless of the injury, Montreal has so many weapons that it is still likely to win. This game will go a long way in showcasing what the Als can do without their best player.
Offensive key to the next game (BC Lions): While Leak is filling some big shoes, running back Avon Cobourne is likely to pick up the load. A tough task for Cobourne considering he's returning from an ankle injury, which caused him to miss the Als' last game.
Defensive key to the next game: As bad as the Lions defense has been, simply outscoring BC is the best option for the Als. However, if the Alouettes want a truly comfortable win, then clogging up lanes around the line of scrimmage is the best bet. Force Printers to go scramble and go deep, and turnovers are more than likely to happen.
Look ahead: Two of the next three weeks are against East opponents, sandwiched around a trip out west to face Edmonton. The Als are not in the clear yet for best in the East, and therefore must not let up against weaker division opponents.
WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS
A 116-yard performance from running back Fred Reid did little for Winnipeg in its last matchup, a 39-17 loss to Montreal in Week 8.
It was Reid's best game of the season but, if anything, it showcased Winnipeg's need for a more consistent passing game.
Steven Jyles has not been able to step up for injured quarterback Buck Pierce, as the reeling Blue Bombers have now lost four in a row.
Fortunately, they will be facing another team that has lost its footing recently in the Saskatchewan Roughriders.
Offensive key to the next game (Saskatchewan Roughriders): Quite simply, Jyles needs to play better, as 129 yards passing is not good enough in any league. That's the number Jyles finished with two weeks ago against Montreal.
Defensive key to the next game: Roughriders quarterback Darian Durant has struggled recently, and his team is suffering as a result. Winnipeg should follow the formula of Saskatchewan's recent opponents and force Durant to make mistakes and cause turnovers. Winnipeg needs to win the battle of possession to have a chance, and this is the best way to do it.
Look ahead: Winnipeg plays nothing but playoff contenders for the next three weeks after Saskatchewan. The postseason is getting to be a harder goal to achieve each and every week for the Bombers. This stretch may prove whether or not the dream is for real.
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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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