Flames try for rare win in Anaheim

Hockey Betting Lines

02/06/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Calgary Flames took care of business at home on Friday before hitting the road for a few games. The task gets a little daunting right off the bat tonight as they aim for their first victory against the Ducks at Anaheim in over eight years.

The Flames put the brakes on a two-game losing streak on Friday with a 3-1 win over the Blackhawks. It was also Calgary's first victory in its past four home games and has the club tied for 11th in the Western Conference with 54 points, four shy of a playoff spot.

On a night when he became Calgary's all-time leader in games played by a goaltender, Miikka Kiprusoff made 26 saves in his 299th career win. He passed Mike Vernon's previous mark of 526 games played.

Getting the goals for the Flames were Olli Jokinen, Jay Bouwmeester and Jarome Iginla, who netted his team-leading 19th of the season and 503 of his career. He has at least 20 tallies in all but one of his previous 14 NHL seasons.

After picking up a win over the struggling Blackhawks, the Flames hit the road for three straight and have won two in a row as the guest following a six-game slide away from Calgary. Head coach Brent Sutter hopes that Friday's triumph gave his club some momentum for its trip.

"You're playing a very good hockey team that's coming off a tough loss and we knew they were going to come here ready to play," Sutter said about Chicago. "We also knew that we had lost three in a row at home and we wanted to get back on track before we hit the road."

The Flames haven't won in Anaheim since Jan. 19, 2004, dropping their last 13 trips there. Four of their past five defeats in Orange County have come beyond regulation, including both trips there a season ago as part of a four-game sweep by the Ducks.

Even if it comes after regulation, Anaheim will look for a much-needed two points this evening as it sits 14th out of 15 teams in the West with 46 points. That has the Ducks 12 points back of the eight spot in the conference.

The Ducks missed a chance to pick up two points on Friday against the NHL's last-place club, falling 3-2 in overtime to the visiting Blue Jackets. Jonas Hiller made 18 saves, but couldn't stop Columbus' Derick Brassard on a 2-on-1 break at 3:55 of the extra frame.

"We were ready but a couple of mistakes cost us," Ducks defenseman Cam Fowler said. "We didn't play to our capability tonight. A loss is a loss. We got one point but we needed two."

Teemu Selanne scored both goals for the Ducks, who have lost the first two of four straight at home and three of four overall. Selanne, who leads the Ducks with 49 points, has 655 career goals, which leaves him one back of Brendan Shanahan for 12th on the all-time list.

The Ducks are still 9-2-2 in their past 13 games and that span includes a 1-0 overtime loss to the Flames in Calgary on Jan. 12 in the first of four meetings. Blair Jones had the OT winner for the Flames 1:51 into the bonus period, while Kiprusoff made 23 saves in his third shutout of the season.

Hiller stopped 18 shots in the loss, just Anaheim's third in its past 11 versus Calgary.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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