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02/07/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Flyers will try to rebound after a dismal weekend when they host the New York Islanders for tonight's Atlantic Division battle at the Wells Fargo Center.
The Flyers played divisional opponents on back-to-back days on Saturday and Sunday and lost both tests in regulation while giving up a total of 11 goals. New Jersey notched a 6-4 win Saturday in Philadelphia and the Flyers were then dealt a 5-2 loss by the first-place Rangers in New York City.
Philadelphia, which trails the Rangers by five points for first in the Atlantic, has lost three of four and five of its last eight contests. Although the Flyers are currently seeded fourth in the East, Pittsburgh and the Devils are just two and three points back, respectively.
Normally, the Flyers would feel pretty good about the Islanders making a trip to Philadelphia, but New York halted a 13-game losing streak in the City of Brotherly Love by recording a 4-1 win at the Wells Fargo Center on Jan. 19. Evgeni Nabokov frustrated the Flyers with 40 saves in the Isles' first win in Philly since April 7, 2007.
The Flyers have still taken 26 of 29 overall from the Isles.
Philadelphia expects to get Danny Briere back tonight after the forward sat out the last six games with a concussion. Briere, who has 13 goals and 30 points in 43 games this season, has been taking part in contract drills in practice and the Flyers confirmed that he will be in the lineup tonight on their official Twitter feed.
Flyers forward James van Riemsdyk is still sidelined indefinitely with a concussion.
Philadelphia lost for the fourth time in four meetings against the Rangers this season on Sunday, as Artem Anisimov had a goal and two assists to lead the Blueshirts.
Brayden Schenn and Wayne Simmonds both scored for the Flyers, while Ilya Bryzgalov allowed four goals on 37 shots in the loss. Bryzgalov started Sunday after coming into the previous day's game in relief when Sergei Bobrovsky allowed all six goals against the Devils.
"We had too many turnovers today and they all wound up in the back of the net," said Simmonds.
It's unclear if Bryzgalov or Bobrovsky will get the start tonight. Bobrovsky is 7-1 with a 2.01 goals-against average in nine career games against the Isles, while Bryzgalov is 0-1 with a 5.52 GAA in three tests versus New York.
The Flyers enter tonight having lost four of their last five as the host. Philly is 12-8-4 at home this year compared to an 18-8-2 mark on the road.
The Isles, who are 11 points out of a playoff spot in the East, had won two straight before getting dealt a 4-3 shootout loss by visiting Buffalo on Saturday. Brad Boyes netted the game-winning goal in the first round of the shootout for the Sabres, who trailed 3-1 after the first period at Nassau Coliseum.
Frans Nielsen finished with two goals and an assist and Josh Bailey also scored for the Islanders. Al Montoya stopped 34-of-37 shots.
Isles forward John Tavares has gone without a point in two February games after being named the NHL's First Star of the Month in January. The 21-year- old has 12 points (5 goals, 7 assists) in 15 career tests against the Flyers.
New York has won its last two road games, but is still just 10-11-3 as the visiting team this season.
<< Sliding Blackhawks aim to get back on track in Denver
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Blackhawks are trying to remain positive, but
that has been tough to do over their longest losing streak of the season. The
Colorado Avalanche are going through the same struggles, but at least the
'Hawks are stil
<< Lehtonen, Stars welcome Coyotes to Big D
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The last time that Kari Lehtonen faced the Coyotes, the
Stars netminder suffered an injury that temporarily derailed his solid season.
The Finn has finally begun to find his form once again and carries a personal
three-gam
<< Leafs try to stay hot in Winnipeg
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It certainly seems as though the Toronto Maple Leafs made a
collective New Year's resolution of ending the franchise's longest playoff
drought ever.
The Leafs look to continue their climb up the Eastern Conference standing
<< Rinne, Preds host showdown with Canucks
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There may not be a more confident goaltender in the league
right now than Nashville's Pekka Rinne. Vancouver should have plenty of
positive feelings heading into Tuesday night after the way it won its last
game.
The Preda
Defensive backs lead FCS contingent going to NFL Combine >>
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defensive backs from Football Championship
Subdivision schools will be on display at the 2012 NFL Scouting Combine.
Half of the 22 FCS players who have been invited to the Feb. 22-28 showcase
at Lucas Oil
Spurs waive Malcolm Thomas >>
San Antonio, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Antonio Spurs have waived forward
Malcolm Thomas.
A rookie from San Diego State, Thomas has appeared in just three games this
season. He has totaled one point, one assist and three rebounds.
An A for Eli...and Indy too >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Before Peyton Manning's future become
dissected and over-analyzed to tiresome Favrethian degrees over the next month,
it's time to give his little brother some very big credit.
If there were any lingering
Briere returning to Flyers lineup Tuesday >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Flyers general manager Paul Holmgren
revealed that forward Danny Briere will be in the lineup when Philadelphia
hosts the New York Islanders on Tuesday.
"I feel ready. I feel like it's time,"
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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