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01/21/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the rest of the Southland Conference had the luxury of devoting more time to high school recruits the last two months, everybody agrees they still are chasing Sam Houston State.
Just like they did in the 2011 regular season.
Recruiting dominates December and January for most FCS coaches, but a little something called the NCAA Division I playoffs got in Sam Houston State's way. Not that the national runner-up Bearkats minded.
"We've gotten a really good reception," Sam Houston State head coach Willie Fritz said about the recruiting season. The national signing period begins Wednesday, Feb. 1.
"We had the opportunity to play three weeks on national TV (in the playoffs) and a couple of those games we were the only (FCS) games on TV. It really helped our exposure. We primarily recruit the state of Texas. Even though we had a late start because we played for so long, we feel like we have an opportunity to have a great class."
Sam Houston State, in its second season under Fritz, won its first 14 games before losing to North Dakota State, 17-6, in the national championship game Jan. 7 in Frisco, Texas.
The Bearkats will be returning a veteran squad next season, featuring the likes of running back Timothy Flanders, wide receiver Richard Sincere, quarterback Brian Bell and safety Darnell Taylor.
With only about 12 players expected to comprise next season's senior class, the Bearkats' recruiting class will go 13 to 15 deep. The focus is on the offensive line, where three or four of the potential starters will be seniors. Five prospects already are verbally committed to the class.
"Everybody's heard of us," Fritz said. "They know about the playoff run, they know about being in the championship game. Most of the kids watched us in at least three or four ball games. We were on regional TV also three or four times this season (as well as the three playoff games on the ESPN Networks). There's a lot more recognition of the Sam Houston football brand out there."
While Fritz's coaching brethren in the Southland were thrilled to have the conference represented in the national title game - "I think it's huge for our conference, I think we're all going to benefit in recruiting from it," Central Arkansas coach Clint Conque said - they still have some catching up to do this offseason.
The Bearkats' closest game within conference play was a 21-point win over Central Arkansas, the runner-up, but a playoff team as well.
"Any time that they get those guys back playing at the level they're playing, there's no question, there's a gap that we all have to fill," said McNeese State head coach Matt Viator, whose program also is focusing on offensive linemen in its recruiting class.
"We'll see what happens; each year is a different year. We found that out here through the years. But certainly on paper, what they've done and if they can come back and play at a high level and the coaching staff stays intact, players stay intact, players stay healthy, the whole deal, they're going to be tough to deal with."
"I think the good thing is you kind of know what you have to stop and you know what you have to do," against Sam Houston State, said Stephen F. Austin head coach J.C. Harper, whose recruiting class is focused on defense, especially in the trenches and the secondary.
"That's what they give you. Defensively, they're going to give you man-free and get after you with pressure.
"Offensively, you have to be able to stop the run and, hopefully, you can hang in there when they play-action pass and try to big-play you. But I like the fact that we might be able to match up with our speed.
"Obviously, everybody is chasing them. They have (nearly) everybody back."
That Sam Houston State can no longer be a surprising team after it improved by eight wins from Fritz's first season in 2010 (a 6-5 mark) isn't lost on the Bearkats head coach.
He knows which program is wearing the bull's-eye in the Southland Conference.
"The big thing I talked about with our guys at the team meeting (on Tuesday) is that for us to be considered one of the top FCS programs in the nation we've got to back that year up with another year," Fritz said. "That's what we're shooting for. It was a great run, it was great experience for us, but the last thing we want to be is a flash in the pan. We understand it's going to take more hard work than what we did last year because we aren't going to sneak up on everybody. We're going to get everybody's best shot."
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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