JoePa, Royster on verge of milestones

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/03/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's a milestone in itself that Penn State icon Joe Paterno is still coaching in the twilight of his years. So it comes as no surprise that the bespectacled legend is approaching 400 career wins.

His traditional white-laced Nike's and khaki pants have strolled the sidelines in Happy Valley since the 1960s, leaving many to wonder when Paterno will finally call it quits. It's unlikely the all-time leader in career wins among FBS coaches will shoot for the unprecedented 500-win mark since he's currently 394-129-3 (75.2).

Paterno will enter his 45th season as head coach of the Nittany Lions, who kick off the season Saturday afternoon against Youngstown State. The young squad returns 13 starters from a year ago which could make it tough for Paterno to become only the third coach in NCAA history with 400 victories, joining John Gagliardi (471) and Eddie Robinson (408). Paterno, whose tenure as head coach at PSU is the longest at one institution among major college coaches, won 300 games faster than any other at his position.

Inducted into the National Football Foundation and College Hall of Fame in December 2007, Paterno's best years may be behind him. But his love for the sport and Penn State is as fresh as the morning dew.

"I'm feeling really good. And as long as I enjoy it, I'll continue to coach, unless I don't think I can do a good job or anybody else doesn't think I can do the job," Paterno quipped during Big Ten media day.

Let's be honest here.

Who in their right mind at Penn State is going to tell Paterno it's time for him to hang up the cuffed khakis after all of the revenue and popularity he has created in his time in central Pennsylvania?

Some may argue the game has passed Paterno by, but he can simply point towards the four Bowl wins over the past five years, back-to-back 11-win seasons, a myriad of players drafted in the NFL and nation-wide respect from both players and coaches. Paterno has also been fortunate to have great scouts who recruit top-tier athletes around the country.

Enter running back Evan Royster.

Royster is from a hot bed of talent down in Farifax, VA, and has transformed himself into one of the nation's premier backs during his days in State College. Penn State is known for sending its linebackers to the next level, a place where Nittany Lion running backs go to die. Royster will most likely be a mid-round pick in 2011 if he stays healthy and looks to avoid the bust label players such as Blair Thomas, Ki-Jana Carter and Curtis Enis are all too familiar with.

Keeping able-bodied is tough to do at any level of football. Former PSU backs Curt Warner, Tony Hunt and Thomas were able to avoid the trainer's room and are the top three rushers in school history.

Royster, who is returning for his senior season, enters the 2010 campaign with 2,918 career rushing yards and needs 481 more to break Warner's record of 3,398 yards set from 1979-82. He needs only 82 yards to become the sixth Penn State tailback to eclipse the 3,000-career rushing mark. He should get that before halftime versus Youngstown State.

"I wanted to return to finish my degree and for my final year at Penn State," Royster told PSU's official website. "I'm looking forward to next season."

Penn State fans should look forward to seeing Royster become the school's all- time leading rusher sometime in October. The Nittany Lions have three fairly easy games in their first four weeks of action (Youngstown State, Kent State, Temple) save a Sept. 11 road bout with defending national champion Alabama.

In other Penn State news, true-freshman quarterback Robert Bolden is expected to start under center for this weekend's game against the Penguins. Paterno is not well known for throwing young players into the proverbial fire, but then again this a matchup Penn State is expected to win with ease.

Paterno had to pick between several signal callers, including last year's backup Kevin Newsome.

"Based on what we have seen to this point, Bolden has a slight edge right now, but we are confident all three quarterbacks are ready to go and hope to give them an opportunity to play until we settle on the one that gives us the best chance to win," Paterno told the team's website.

Paterno should make that decision Saturday night before the team prepares for a tough showdown with the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, AL.

Gmable NCAA Football Betting News

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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